Thursday 06/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Thursday 06/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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MLB LONG SHEET


Thursday, June 25

ST LOUIS (40 - 32) at NY METS (35 - 34) - 1:10 PM
CHRIS CARPENTER (R) vs. JOHAN SANTANA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 126-108 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 126-108 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 18-21 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 81-80 (-15.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SANTANA is 2-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-1 (+2.9 Units) against NY METS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. NY METS since 1997
CARPENTER is 1-4 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 5.29 and a WHIP of 1.412.
His team's record is 2-4 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.4 units)

JOHAN SANTANA vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
SANTANA is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 0.778.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (34 - 33) at DETROIT (39 - 31) - 1:05 PM
TED LILLY (L) vs. ARMANDO GALARRAGA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 991-1042 (-192.2 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 292-335 (-93.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 148-207 (-62.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 934-958 (-170.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
DETROIT is 34-15 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-7 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
DETROIT is 38-25 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 68-43 (+20.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
GALARRAGA is 13-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LILLY is 32-16 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LILLY is 15-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 113-119 (-24.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

TED LILLY vs. DETROIT since 1997
LILLY is 2-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.018.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.4 units)

ARMANDO GALARRAGA vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA DODGERS (47 - 24) at CHI WHITE SOX (33 - 37) - 2:05 PM
CHAD BILLINGSLEY (R) vs. CLAYTON RICHARD (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHI WHITE SOX are 116-90 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 47-24 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 22-14 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LA DODGERS are 47-24 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA DODGERS are 25-12 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
BILLINGSLEY is 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

CHAD BILLINGSLEY vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.

CLAYTON RICHARD vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

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KANSAS CITY (30 - 39) at HOUSTON (32 - 36) - 2:05 PM
BRIAN BANNISTER (R) vs. BRIAN MOEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 32-55 (-19.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 58-88 (-26.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-22 (-12.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
HOUSTON is 118-111 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 60-52 (+15.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 35-29 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 114-109 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 86-83 (+11.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 56-40 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MOEHLER is 22-15 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MOEHLER is 21-15 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BANNISTER is 13-6 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

BRIAN BANNISTER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

BRIAN MOEHLER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
MOEHLER is 2-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.62 and a WHIP of 1.795.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.6 units)

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MINNESOTA (36 - 36) at MILWAUKEE (37 - 33) - 2:05 PM
SCOTT BAKER (R) vs. MIKE BURNS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-4 (+18.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.2 Units)

SCOTT BAKER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
BAKER is 3-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.144.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.4 units)

MIKE BURNS vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
No recent starts.

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SAN DIEGO (31 - 38) at SEATTLE (35 - 35) - 4:40 PM
WADE LEBLANC (L) vs. JARROD WASHBURN (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 94-136 (-39.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 38-76 (-28.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 6-22 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 94-136 (-39.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 96-136 (-37.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 88-125 (-36.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHBURN is 12-27 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHBURN is 6-12 (-13.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
WASHBURN is 8-27 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-2 (+0.1 Units) against SEATTLE this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

WADE LEBLANC vs. SEATTLE since 1997
No recent starts.

JARROD WASHBURN vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
WASHBURN is 2-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.37 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

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CINCINNATI (34 - 35) at TORONTO (39 - 33) - 7:07 PM
JOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. BRETT CECIL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 93-75 (+11.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 466-541 (+44.4 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 309-352 (+32.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

BRETT CECIL vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

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CLEVELAND (30 - 42) at PITTSBURGH (31 - 39) - 7:05 PM
CLIFF LEE (L) vs. ROSS OHLENDORF (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 30-42 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-21 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 23-35 (-14.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LEE is 4-10 (-7.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
PITTSBURGH is 361-344 (+35.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.
LEE is 31-14 (+16.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
LEE is 52-37 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
LEE is 22-9 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in June games since 1997. (Team's Record)
LEE is 18-5 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday since 1997. (Team's Record)
LEE is 15-3 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

CLIFF LEE vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
No recent starts.

ROSS OHLENDORF vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

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BOSTON (43 - 27) at WASHINGTON (20 - 48) - 7:05 PM
JOHN SMOLTZ (R) vs. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 100-100 (+30.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 58-45 (+20.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 67-44 (+27.7 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997.
BOSTON is 144-99 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 30-11 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 10-0 (+10.4 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
BOSTON is 39-20 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 103-68 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 60-31 (+20.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 20-48 (-24.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 12-24 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
WASHINGTON is 20-45 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 14-34 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
WASHINGTON is 14-34 (-16.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
WASHINGTON is 12-32 (-16.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

JOHN SMOLTZ vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
SMOLTZ is 12-5 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.33 and a WHIP of 0.930.
His team's record is 17-7 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-12. (-1.1 units)

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN vs. BOSTON since 1997
No recent starts.

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PHILADELPHIA (37 - 31) at TAMPA BAY (37 - 35) - 7:08 PM
ANTONIO BASTARDO (L) vs. ANDY SONNANSTINE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 142-108 (+24.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 83-40 (+30.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 84-43 (+27.7 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 88-48 (+27.0 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 46-20 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 22-13 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-9 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-8 (+9.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-6 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 (+1.6 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

ANTONIO BASTARDO vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

ANDY SONNANSTINE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
SONNANSTINE is 0-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 2.250.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.3 units)

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NY YANKEES (38 - 32) at ATLANTA (34 - 36) - 7:10 PM
ANDY PETTITTE (L) vs. DEREK LOWE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 222-176 (-31.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 34-30 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY YANKEES are 25-25 (-12.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 34-17 (+17.2 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 106-126 (-32.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-23 (-14.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
ATLANTA is 85-83 (-39.3 Units) against the money line in home games in June games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 49-52 (-24.9 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997.
ATLANTA is 105-124 (-31.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 72-86 (-24.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

ANDY PETTITTE vs. ATLANTA since 1997
PETTITTE is 6-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.301.
His team's record is 10-1 (+9.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-3. (+3.9 units)

DEREK LOWE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
LOWE is 7-9 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.11 and a WHIP of 1.584.
His team's record is 9-10 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-9. (-0.8 units)

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BALTIMORE (32 - 38) at FLORIDA (36 - 36) - 7:10 PM
RICH HILL (L) vs. SEAN WEST (L)
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 120-113 (+21.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 71-54 (+25.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 126-101 (+32.9 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 116-111 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 84-82 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 17-8 (+10.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 81-84 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

RICH HILL vs. FLORIDA since 1997
No recent starts.

SEAN WEST vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.

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TEXAS (37 - 32) at ARIZONA (30 - 41) - 9:40 PM
SCOTT FELDMAN (R) vs. JON GARLAND (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 116-115 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 109-107 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 85-79 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 80-73 (+17.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 30-41 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 15-23 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
ARIZONA is 30-41 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 8-17 (-12.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 9-16 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 33-49 (-20.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against TEXAS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

SCOTT FELDMAN vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

JON GARLAND vs. TEXAS since 1997
GARLAND is 5-8 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.24 and a WHIP of 1.528.
His team's record is 7-12 (-7.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 11-7. (+3.3 units)
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers (+112, 9)

The Chicago Cubs don’t score runs on the road.

The Cubbies are a wretched 13-20 away from Wrigley Field this season, with the majority of their problems attributed to leaving their bats back in the Windy City.

Chicago is hitting a meager .235 BA in opponents’ ballparks and has topped four runs just three times in their past 15 road games. The Cubs also have gone under the total in 14 of their past 20 games and have an O/U road record of 13-18-2.

The Tigers do have the ninth-best home offense in baseball, scoring 181 runs at Comerica Park and hitting .274 as a team, but overall are 14-16-2 against the number at home.

Neither pitchers – Chicago’s Ted Lilly or Detroit’s Armando Galarraga - will be unhittable, but look for both to keep runs off the board.

Pick: Under 9


Cleveland Indians at Pittsburgh Pirates (+143, 8.5)

The Indians have rocked opposing pitchers on the road this season. And the Pirates have been on a roll at home.

Cleveland has the fourth-best road offense in baseball, scoring a major-league best 211 roads away from home. The Tribe are batting .277 BA and have mashed 45 home runs. They are one of the few consistent over plays this season, topping the number in 24 of 37 road games.

The Pirates, however, are killing it at home and post a 17-13 record and hit .291 BA as a team at PNC Park - the second-best home average in the majors.

Pittsburgh has been struggling to score runs, but the majority of its struggles have come on the road as it figures to take a scalp off the Indians.

Pick: Pirates +143
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Ted Lilly (Chicago Cubs)

Ted Lilly is heating up under the June sun. In four starts this month, the Cubbies left-hander is posting a 1.98 ERA and has struck out 23 batters while walking just six.

Despite these stellar performances, Lilly has just one win to show for his efforts. He’s settled for three no-decisions in June including his most recent start against the Cleveland Indians. He went six innings, allowing three runs on six hits against the Tribe, recording his 11th quality start of the season.

Chris Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)

The inspiring return of Chris Carpenter continues to play out in Disney-like proportions. In his most recent trip to the bump, Carpenter pitched just under eight innings, giving up only one run on three hits.

That gem improved the right-hander’s record to 5-1 on the year and was Carpenter’s fifth quality start in a row. He has a 2-1 record and an ERA of 2.43 this month, helping St. Louis capture first place in the National League Central.



Slumping

Armando Galarraga (Detroit Tigers)

The Tigers’ youngster appeared to be turning over a new leaf in June, posting an ERA under 4.00 in his first two appearances of the month. However, in his past two starts Galarraga has pitched only six innings while allowing seven earned runs on 16 hits.

His most recent outing was a rain-shortened showing versus the Milwaukee Brewers. While he was able to throw just four innings, Galarraga did manage to give up a home run – making it the 10th straight game an opponent has gone yard off the right-hander. He has allowed 14 dingers during that stretch.

Sean West (Florida Marlins)

The Marlins’ rookie hurler blew through seven batters when he faced the New York Yankees in his most recent start. Unfortunately, he also gave up five runs on five hits and lasted just four innings.

West has dropped his past two trips to the mound since pitching an eight-inning shutout against the San Francisco Giants. The 6-foot-8 southpaw has good stuff but sometimes gets caught going after batters, leading to the three home runs he’s allowed in the past two games. He’s served five round trippers during his six starts in 2009.
 
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Jim Feist

(923) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
(924) FLORIDA MARLINS
Take "(924) FLORIDA MARLINS"

Baltimore is a terrible road team, and the offense has little speed and ranks just 10th in the AL in runs scored. They lose the DH for this game, heading to Florida. Lefty Rich Hill allowed two runs in 6.2 innings Friday against the Phillies. He was credited with the win, improving his season record to 3-1, shutting down a potent Philadelphia lineup. The Baltimore offense has never faces Florida lefty Sean West (3.97 ERA), who has been decent. Play the Marlins.
 
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Thursday's best WNBA bet
By Covers

Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics (-3.5, 176)

Phoenix needs to catch its breath.

The Mercury were one of the hottest teams to start the season but have stalled the past several games, including squandering a late lead and going scoreless in the final 2:43 of a 91-87 loss to San Antonio Tuesday. Phoenix leads the league offensively, averaging 91.4 points per game, but has averaged just 85.5 points per game the past two outings – both loses.

It doesn't get easier against Washington’s stingy defense, which is yielding just 75 points per game. If the Mercury are to crank up their offense, they will have to rely on star Diana Taurasi (22 ppg), who averaged 30 ppg in two wins against the Mystics last year. If Phoenix can force the tempo it should control the game. Washington will have a hard time keeping up after failing to score more than 81 points this year. Its lone loss was a 93-81 defeat to Atlanta.

Pick: Mercury +3.5
 
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Bullpen Banter
By ASA

Thriving – San Francisco Giants

If the season ended today, which N.L. team would be on their way to the post-season as the wildcard? Surprisingly, and quite obvious at this point, it would be the San Francisco Giants. Their offense has very little to do with their current success as this team is last in the Majors in home runs and 28th in runs scored. Thus their pitching staff, including a top notch bullpen, is the main reason they are in a fight for a post-season berth which far exceeds what most expected from this team.

Most would not have envisioned the Giants having the second best team ERA in all of baseball as we near the All-Star break, however that is a fact. San Fran’s team ERA is just 3.65 and they have allowed the fewest runs per game (3.8) in the Majors this season. On top of that, this staff has more strikeouts than any other team…Impressive numbers to say the least. The starting staff obviously has a stake in those imposing stats as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are both in the top 10 in starter’s ERA. However, the bullpen has definitely held up their end of the bargain.


As I mentioned, the Giants team ERA is second in baseball, however the bullpen numbers are actually even more impressive. That’s because they have the best bullpen ERA in the league at 3.34. Opponents are hitting just .243 against Giant relievers. And while the starters have been solid for the most part, they have only 36 quality starts putting them in the middle of the pack in MLB. That tells us the bullpen has had to shoulder more than their share of the load this year.

The interesting part about this San Francisco bullpen is that their success has been built mainly with first year players. Now by that we don’t mean rookies, we mean first year Giants. These well traveled veterans have really come into their own this year and pushed this team into second place in the N.L. West behind the red hot Dodgers. The most “well known” pick up was Bobby Howry who has posted decent numbers (3.91 ERA) but other under the radar signings have been more efficient. Jeremy Affeldt who has pitched with Kansas City, Colorado and Atlanta, has been one of the best pick ups in baseball. He has a miniscule 1.65 ERA in 32 appearances. Justin Miller, who was with Florida the last two years, has been great with an ERA of just 2.27 in 25 appearances. Brandon Medders is another newcomer who took the mound for Arizona the last four seasons. His ERA is 2.97.

Those four have helped this rebuilt San Francisco bullpen become one of the best in MLB. In fact, the only holdover besides closer Brian Wilson, that has had significant mound action this year is Merkin Valdez. If the “newcomers” continue their breakout seasons and the starting staff stays solid, this team should remain in the N.L. wildcard hunt. If their offense ever comes around, then they will really be a serious threat.

Struggling – Kansas City Royals

The Royals were somewhat of a surprise team early in the season as they jumped out to a solid 18-11 mark. That was on May 8th. Since then this team is just 12-28 and has dropped to nine games below .500. Those 12 wins are the second fewest in baseball since May 8th topped, or bottomed in this instance, only by Washington with 11. Much of that drop off has been the result of an ineffective bullpen.

KC sits near the middle of the pack for most key pitching stats, however if it weren’t for Zach Greinke having an all world year, they would be much further down the totem pole. The bullpen ranks 25th in ERA at 4.73 and have allowed 229 base runners in just 157.1 innings. The relievers have combined to blow 10 saves and have a record of only 6-11. The starters haven’t been much better as Hochevar, Davies and Bannister have had some less than stellar outings making for some long relief outings taking its toll on the pen.

The only real standout this year in the Royal bullpen has been closer Joakim Soria. Problem is, Soria was injured in early May and sat on the sidelines for nearly a month. He made is first appearance off the D.L. on June 3rd. He has pitched a total of seven innings since being reactivated. His overall numbers are great with a 1.72 ERA and eight saves in nine opportunities. If you take away his save numbers, the KC relievers have only two saves in 11 chances. Soria’s role as a closer is being vastly underutilized with the Royals this year because this team simply hasn’t given him many chances to save a game. In fact, since returning from the D.L. on June 3rd, he has had only two save opportunities and that’s it. This team has scored the 4th fewest runs in the Majors this year and in June they have put up less than four runs per game unfortunately leaving Soria on the bench most o f the time.

As we mentioned, the remaining relievers have been under performing. The Royals top five out of bullpen according to appearances all have ERA’s of 4.24 or higher. That’s not good to say the least. Everyone in the pen that has more than 10 innings pitched (minus Soria) has a WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) of more than 1.46 except one and that’s Kyle Farnsworth. Another extremely unimpressive stat. With only one really reliable starter, a bullpen in flux and very little offense, the prospects for this team do not look bright.

OTHER BULLPEN TIDBITS

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies are just 2-8 their last 10 games and closing out games has been a huge problem. Closer Brad Lidge has been sporadic all season and is now on the disabled list. The Phils have used Ryan Madsen as his replacement with limited results. Last week alone Madsen blew two saves and allowed five earned runs in just over two innings pitched. Madsen was very good as a set up man but may not have what it takes to be a solid closer.

Texas Rangers – The Ranger bullpen as a whole has not been very good. However, their closing situation has become one of the better spots in baseball. Closer Frank Francisco was recently activated off the D.L. after being sidelined since June 4th. He is 12 for 12 in save opportunities and has the lowest ERA in baseball (0.44) among pitchers with more than 15 innings of work. His replacement during his downtime was CJ Wilson who was 6 for 7 in saves and has an ERA of 2.89. Between the two they have pocketed 18 saves in 19 chances.
 
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Stephen Nover

Today’s Free Pick

Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers Jun 25, 2009 1:05PM

PICK: Chicago Cubs

REASON FOR PICK: The Detroit Tigers have won six in a row and own one of the better home marks at 22-11.

But there's a reason why they are a home 'dog today. That reason is a pitching matchup of Ted Lilly against Armando Galarraga. It's enough to make me lay a small price on the Cubs.

Lilly is underrated. He has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League this season. He's 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his past 23 1/3 innings.

Lilly is well suited to pitch in spacious Comerica Park, too, being a fly ball pitcher.

As for Galarraga, he shouldn't even be in the majors anymore. He is 0-7 with a 7.48 ERA in his last 10 starts. Opponents are batting .343 against him during this span.

The Cubs are one-for-23 with runners in scoring position during the first two games of this series. A correction is due in short order. Expect it to happen in this matchup.

The Tigers' bullpen worked four innings on Wednesday night. Closer Fernando Rodney had a rocky ninth inning throwing 24 pitches before getting out of a jam.

This is a one-unit play for me.
 
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Craig Trapp

Craig's Bonus Play is another interleague matchup.

Ny Yankees vs. Atl Braves:

Ny Yankees -107


Betting Trends


-Yankees are 5-1 in Pettittes last 6 interleague starts.


-Yankees are 4-0 in Pettittes last 4 starts vs. Braves.


-Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.


-Braves are 1-4 in Lowes last 5 starts.


The rubber match of this interleague series as both teams won a game in the first two. Today the NYY try to keep there bats alive after really struggling in there last 9 games. The Yanks also turn to veteran Petite who has been great on the road recently. He has gone 18 innings in his last 4 road starts only allowing 4 runs. ATL turns the ball over to Lowe hoping he will avoid some recent troubles. In his last three starts he has pitched 15 innings allowing 13 runs going 0-3!! Lets ride the hot bats and better pitching in an easy winner NYY!!

SCORE: NYY 6 - ATL 2
 
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JR O'Donnell

Bonus Play

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels:

Total 9 ov-120

Look at these #'s to support our {OVER} The Los Angels pitching is 3rd last in the majors with a + 4.95 ERA.
We note that the Colorado Rockies are knocking the cover off the ball with 30 home runs & over 140 rbi's the last 24 games.... they have went 19-5 the last 24 battles

Jr's Play'n the OVER
 
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Bob Harvey

Bonus Play

Chi Cubs vs. Det Tigers:

The Tigers are red hot at home. They've won six straight in the friendly confines and look to make it seven in a row when they go for a three game sweep of the Cubs. A victory today would also give Detroit a perfect 6-0 homestand. However the Tigers will need a solid outing from Armando Gallaraga to have a shot at perfection.

Gallaraga, who was nothing short of brilliant last season, has been nothing short of awful this season. He's 3-7 with a 5.62 ERA and hasn't won since April 26. Gallaraga is also 0-7 his last 10 starts.

Needless to say Chicago's got a huge pitching advantage with Ted Lilly on the hill. The veteran lefty has made four starts this month and has been brilliant in each one of them posting a 1.98 ERA. On the season Lilly has made 11 quality starts, meaning he's gone at least six innings in each of those outings. Over his last ten starts he's 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA.

However there are some other numbers that favor a play on Detroit. Like the Cubs six-game losing streak to the Tigers daring back to 2001. Or how about the fact that the Cubs offense has gone south. Chicago has scored seven total runs while losing the first three of its 10-game stretch away from Wrigley Field. They've stranded 31 runners during its slide and if your not hitting with runners in scoring posistion, bad streaks tend to continue.

To loosely paraphrase Miss South Carolina, where as the Tigers can really hit the ball (8th in homeruns and 9th in scoring) the Cubs, you know, don't whereas hit the ball very well. Chicago is 22nd in runs scored, 24th in OPS and 26th in batting average.

Is Ted Lilly the better pitcher today? Absolutely he's head and shoulders above Gallaraga. However Lilly can't do much about the Cubs anemic offense and that's why I'm playing the Tigers in this one.

Det Tigers +107
 

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Dominic Fazzini

Today's Bonus Play

I handed you a FREE WIN for the third time in four days with the Blue Jays downing the Reds on Wednesday. We'll it League Championship Series. In 39 regular-season appekeep it rolling today with another interleague matchup.

As a pitcher for the Red Sox from 1997 through 2004, Derek Lowe is no stranger to facing the Yankees.

The sinkerballer dominated the last time he faced New York, allowing one hit in six innings on two days’ rest in Game 7 of the 2004 American arances vs. the Yankees, however, Lowe’s ERA was 6.07.

Now with the Braves, Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) has been solid at Turner Field, going 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in seven starts. But he has struggled on the mound lately, going 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA over his last three starts.

Lowe will be opposed by a familiar face in Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26), who has thrived when away from hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Pettitte is 4-1 with a 2.35 ERA on the road, and he allowed one run on three hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings Friday in New York’s 5-1 win at Florida.

And Pettitte has had pretty good success against the Braves, going 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA against them in nine regular-season starts, and pitching 8 1/3 shutout innings in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series.

Atlanta hasn’t won a series since sweeping Toronto from May 22-24, and is 11-17 since then. I don’t see the Braves breaking through today. Go with the Yankees.

(Based on a 1? to 5? scale)


3? NEW YORK
 

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Matt Fargo

Today’s Free Pick

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 25, 2009 9:40PM

PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks

REASON FOR PICK: Texas is slipping in the American League West. After having a four-game lead just 10 games ago, the lead has been cut to zero as the Angels have caught Texas in the division. The Rangers did pick up a much needed win last night and it was unexpected as they were able to beat Dan Haren thanks to an even better effort from Vicente Padilla. Arizona continues to struggle on offense as it has been hit or miss with this team. The Diamondbacks could get some production tonight from the bats as they square off against Scott Feldman. Feldman has a terrific run of six straight quality starts but his last three have produced none and things could be going from bad to worse as team are finally starting to figure him out. He is 4-1 on the road but his ERA is 4.26 which is nothing great and only half of his road outings have been quality performances. He squares off against Jon Garland who is turning the corner in the other direction. Despite Arizona losing his last six starts, three of his last four outings have been quality starts including his last two where has allowed a combined three runs in 14 innings of work. Obviously the run support has been lacking but that has not been the case at home where the Diamondbacks have averaged 6.0 rpg in his seven home starts. His 7.82 home ERA looks atrocious but four of those seven starts have been good ones and that inflated number is attributed to three games and even though it is three too many, he is in a better state right now to follow up his last start at Chase Field which was in fact a quality performance. Arizona falls into a solid underdog situation as well. Play against road favorites of less than -150 with a starting pitcher who averages three or fewer strikeouts per outing going up against a National League opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.55 to 1.65 on the season. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) since 1997.

3* Arizona Diamondbacks
 

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